Betting on Game of Thrones, Britain’s got Talent, and TV shows in general seems ludicrous at first glance. You’re wagering money on things that are either scripted or subject to public voting. But why do people love it so much? Is it the thrill of getting something right; the adrenaline rush of the semi-live experience? Or the drama and intrigue that unfolds before your very eyes, intensified by the prospect of a prize at the end. Humans are drawn to unpredictability – the unknown. They also want to know the future and be able to predict it so they can gain a sense of control. Putting a few quid on an outcome just sweetens the deal. In this article, I’ll be taking a look at different aspects of betting on television programmes and see just what draws them in.

Bridging the gap

One of the main draws is the intersection of two worlds – binge watching and betting. They’re not too disparate but not many people are thinking of odds when they see Daenerys Targaryen flying with her dragons. In December the odds were updated for who would rule Westeros at the end of Game of Thrones. For those who don’t know, GoT is based on a book series by George R. R. Martin and the show is actually ahead of the books. But the show is ending this year and that means the final ruler could be anyone. The mind boggles.

Grappling with the markets

Speaking of bridging the gap, professional wrestling (not to be confused with amateur competitive wrestling) is the perfect marriage of sports and entertainment. That’s exactly what it’s called: sports entertainment. Each wrestler has physical training but they’re all actors following “storylines”.

The concept dates back to the 19th century France and philosopher Roland Barthes wrote an essay on the various roles wrestlers play as a way to draw in the audience. WWE (World Wrestling Entertainment) are the biggest wrestling corporation and the most famous. Their wrestlers’ acts seem so real (this act is known as “kayfabe”), it forms a basis to bet on outcomes. But for the most part, the moves and decisions are scripted. Winners are decided beforehand and the latest the wrestlers find out is in the locker room before the match begins. WWE writers often leave breadcrumbs that newcomers might not notice but long-time watchers can spot a mile off. With that kind of knowledge, it’s possible to make educated guesses on PPV (pay-per-view) matches and who will win. WrestleMania is the main event on the WWE calendar and the buildup to the event is super intense. But not everything goes according to plan for viewers

The Undertaker took a 21-0 unbeaten streak into his 22nd WrestleMania. His opponent was Brock Lesnar, one of the bigger names on the roster. 25 minutes later, The Undertaker was pinned. The crowd were stunned to silence. Nobody saw it coming and any bettors wouldn’t have either.

Tips on TV

Wagering on scripted television is one thing. Placing bets on reality TV shows is another. For a start, most of them feed off public votes so there looks like an element of fixing there. The UK Gambling Commission wrote a policy position report detailing the misuse of inside information. No one has been caught out to date but the possibilities are there.

There are legitimate tips for reality TV betting, and there are guides out there telling you what to do, from “watch the show”, to doing historical and current research and knowing the audience. A notable quote is “reality TV betting is not sport, there is little concrete examples of form to assess who should win.” That’s a big difference between sports betting and reality TV betting: you can base your decisions on past history and current form in sports but anything can happen week-on-week on a show like Strictly Come Dancing, even if you’re the best performer overall.

The world of entertainment betting

What kind of bets can you even put on TV shows anyway? It doesn’t have to be on winners only. Bookmakers have found ways to use traditional betting types on non-sporting events.

Besides betting on a winner, there is also over/under betting. Here you have to guess whether something will happen over X number of times or under X number of times. Examples of this are scores (like Strictly, betting on a score over/under 30), or the number of rounds in a celebrity boxing match (do they still do those?) You can get into the world of spread betting where you bet on the spread between the differences in votes or scores of two selected opponents.

The markets are diverse too. Betfair, for example, have bets for Eurovision, Austria’s Dancing Stars (their version of Strictly), who will play the next Superman, and who will play the next Batman. Unibet have odds on BBC Sports Personality of the Year 2019 and Prince Harry and Meghan’s Baby, down to the hour and weight of birth. Meanwhile, the markets for Game of Thrones are even more diverse with odds on who lives or dies, whether Sansa Stark marries or if all the dragons die.

The more entertaining TV becomes, the more chances there are to place bets on their outcomes. On the flip side, online gambling is an industry constantly on the rise. Even when you’re not watching the shows, new casinos are advertised during breaks. But there have been downsides to both. Dating reality show Love Island is regularly in the news for the numerous breakups of its contestants after they leave. But recently, two contestants had taken their own lives. Sophie Gradon had died in 2018, with the former contestant discussing her anxiety “and being in a dark place because of the amount of negativity focused towards her”. 2018 contestant Mike Thalassitis was also found dead near his home this year. Online gambling problems have been discussed in parliament extensively with the change of fixed-odds betting terminals (FOBTs) and their minimum bets, from £100 to £2, this month. Tom Watson disclosed how a constituent had run up debts of £100,000 on 9 credit cards in two days with two online casinos.