There is an old saying that football is a game that we play with our legs, arms, and shoulders, but mainly from the neck up. In this article, we will teach you how you should bet on the NFL. Meaning, we will try and utilize the ‘neck up’ part, so you can gain an advantage on the linemakers. However, like in any other sports betting, first, you must understand the basics. From all of the major sports in America, NFL is by far the most popular one for betting, cumulating with the biggest event of the year, the Superbowl. Let us start with the types of bets that people like to wager their money on.
Spread betting: similarly, to a lot of other high scoring sports, in the NFL wagering is ordered by the point spread. These spreads, or as people sometimes call them, lines, are a certain side bets, that helps gamblers equalize the winning position of their bet. The spread that is offered to any of the teams will be followed by a + or a – symbol, which will indicate who is the most favored team and who are the underdogs. Once you have done your research and found your perfect sports book, you can move to the next important thing, which is learning the betting odds. The example below will show you the line from the archives on Sports Insights (at the kickoff time):
Team: Spread at Kickoff: Final Score:
Tennessee Titans: – 9 (- 110) 23
Indianapolis Colts: + 9 (- 110) 20
Usually, the number that is beside the spread will be “-110”. This is also known as the odds, vig or juice. The odds are the fractions of the wager that are taken from the gambler if the bet wins. The example on the example above shows that even if the Tennessee won the contest, the spread was covered by the Colts by losing with less than 9 points. It is very important to capture the best spread possible while betting on sports. The best way you can achieve this is with shopping for the ideal spread. One good advice we can give you is that you should probably make a lot of accounts on different sports books, that will allow you to find the best sports book spread, for the best number, before you place your wager. Just like with the most of the things in life, size does matter. The ideal sports book is sure to have a lot of happy customers, so if the other customers are happy there is a chance you will be too.
For example, if there were two teams, Team A and Team B, and Team A was -2 against the Team B, and when you looked through different sports books you noticed that the Sports Interaction has the Team A at -3 against the Team B, you have to repeatedly add an extra of 0,5 – points to 1,0 – point for every time you place a bet, since this will increase your odds of winning by 3 – 1%. This can vary if it is the losing or the winning season. You should take advantage of shaded lines because that is one of the most important strategies used to increase the values when you are betting against the public.
Money line bet: equally to the driven NFL, there is a phrase that says “any given Sunday” that is highly preferred, which is why this bet (the Money line bet), can be very profitable if you bet on the underdogs. This bet is used to be placed, or wagered, on either the underdogs or the favored team with one of them winning straight up. The Money line and the spread bets are becoming a large part of the Sports Insights’ Smart Money and Steam Moves betting systems.
Steam Moves: is a betting strategy that features an alert – based system that gets triggered every time there is a sudden uniform spread movement going across the whole sports betting market. What makes this bet useful is that it can track the sports book that gets triggered by the “Steam Move”, together with each of the sportsbooks’ record.
Smart money, which today is known as the reverse line movement: is the most groundbreaking and innovative bet signal ever found. This is a feature that is based on an alert, which is triggered automatically every time that the betting line (Money line, Spread, and O/U) moves in a direction that is opposite of the betting percentage. The system uses its massive database of line betting movement and betting percentage data that helps him find the optimal formula. This is designed so that the members would notice some unusual betting line movements so that they can quickly capitalize it.
Quarter and First Half Lines: usually, the majority of bets we wager are wagered on the outcome of a certain game. However, for the NBA and the NFL sports, these is also a 1st quarter and a 1st half line. The quarter line is, of course, used to determine the outcome of the 1st quarter. The same goes for the 1st half line, the only difference is that the wager ends when the 1st two – quarters are done.
Halftime Lines: there are some in-game bets that can be placed DURING the halftime, which will determine the end of the 2nd half, called the halftime or the second half. The second half line is used when players have already seen how half of the game was played. For the halftime bet purposes, the game will essentially be restarted at 0 to 0.
Over/Under or Totals: the concept of betting on Over/Under or totals is quite simple. The bettor needs to wager his money on the TOTAL point that will be scored in the game, will they be under or over a certain number set by the sports book.
Parlays: these bets are wagers that are placed in a combination with the spread bets, totals and money line bets to increase your payout. A parlay bet is only a win if ALL of the individuals plays hit.
Teasers: these bets are the same as parlays, except for the fact that here you put points to your favor, to help yourself win. For example, if the line that is proposed to you is -13 but you have a 6-point teaser, then your new line is -7. A teaser bet has fewer risks than a parlay bet, but you still have to be right about every individual outcome, and the payoff is significantly reduced. Many Sports books will let you bet up to fifteen times for just one parlay, and if all of your wagers are at – 110, then that is a payout of 16,306 / 1!
# Of Teams: Payoff
2 2.64 / 1
3 6 / 1
4 12.28 / 1
5 24.35 / 1
6 47.41 / 1
7 91.42 / 1
8 175.44 / 1
9 335.85 / 1
10 642.08 / 1
11 1226.70 / 1
12 2342.79 / 1
13 4473.51 / 1
14 8541.25 / 1
15 16306.94 / 1
Futures: are exactly the kinds of bets you think they are. You wager your money on an outcome of an event that you think is going to happen in the future. As you might have guessed already, the most popular futures bets are the ones placed on the winner of Superbowl. Even the odds of teams are released after a week of the previous championship. It is not unusual to see that the last year’s worse team is a 100 / 1 dogs or worse. However, keep in mind that the futures are not limited to just the question of who will win the game. Similarly, to the proposition bet for any kind of contest, you can place several of these bets on the possible future outcomes (from who is going to win the division to who is going to win the league’s MVP). The odds for futures can be found in any of the sports books, but some of them have just a limited section of bets that they will actually consider.
NFL Team Props: this is a bet of the odds to win the division. The prop is similar to the futures bet that will allow you to pick whoever you think is going to win any of the given divisions.
NFL Player Props: oddsmakers will set a spread that will include all of the NFL players who are believed to be the ones, which will most likely win the NFL MVP Award and maybe even the Defensive and Offensive Rookie Award. The sports books will provide a list that will have all of the players together with their odds. There will also be an option for you to bet ‘the field’, which is a spread that will include every player that is not on the previous list.
Buying Points: as we all know, everything has its own price today. If you are inclined, you are able to buy the things you would normally get for free, like water, air or dirt, or you could actually buy yourself the valued commodities that are in NFL betting systems, called half a point. The management of risks does not get easier than this. If you have ever looked at the betting of NFL lines and seen something like:
– Cleveland Browns +3,5
– Arizona Cardinals -3,5
It can become very frustrating if you are dealing with the NFL line spread that is at the near 3 points. What if you actually want to bet on the Cardinals? You are probably worried that they will only win by a simple field goal. Fortunately, with this, you are able to buy half a point and bet on the Arizona – 3. With this even if the cards do win with a 3, it is not a loss but a push. You could also buy half a point for the Browns, which will make them a +4.
Single and Multi Bets: there are a lot of ways you can wager your money in NFL betting. Single bet method is the most preferred method to place a bet on, which is any wager put on an outcome of a particular game or event without parlays or combinations. This bet is considered as the go – to move when betting on the NFL (no matter at what level you are at as a handicapper). If perhaps you prefer betting online, then you should keep it simple with the focus on making a single bet. Additionally, the most experienced handicaps carry most of their businesses using single bets.
IF bet: this bet is simply a clever way of putting two straight bets (together), without having to turn them into a two – team play. Your potential payout might be lower, but so will be the risks of you not earning anything. For example, if there were:
– Houston Texans – 4
– OVER 48
With this example, you would want to bet that the Houston Texans will win against the Philadelphia Eagles, by more than 4 points. Additionally, it is a good advice to also bet the over on the total of points (48).
Reverse Bet: this is one of the most underused NFL bets. The reverse bet is basically an if bet, that is played twice at the exact same time, with one order that will be reserved for two halves. The advantages of placing this bet, are that you will still be able to limit your exposures to losses while still expanding all of the possible combinations that will produce the winning wagers.
Yardage Differential: in the most basic levels the NFL is always about the battle of offensive VS defensive units. There is one simple way you can evaluate the strength of the NFL team, which is by looking at the average offensive yards that are gained per play and also the average defensive yards that are allowed per play. As you may have suspected, the team that will have more yards than they initially allowed, are more likely to actually win. This may not be exclusively accurate, but this measure will be as good as the predictor of the future outcomes.
Home Field Advantage: there is a unique closed system by which the NFL operates, and where the promotion and relegation do not occur. This can be looked at from a statistical point of view, which shows that data from the seasons that had success for these factors as the Home Field Advantages is robust. To work out the Home Field Advantages for each of the franchise that is competing in the NFL, you need to subtract the total of the points scored by visiting sides and the home sides (teams), and then dividing it by the total number of played games.
Key NFL Numbers: there are a few numbers you need to be aware of when betting on the NFL handicaps. When you understand what the key numbers are, you will be able to avoid placing a bet on a bad handicap, and you will be able to realize which of the teams do the bookmakers want you to bet on. For example, the most common margin of the NFL victory games is three, and most of the games will be decided later on by a field goal. The second most common winning margin is a seven, which represents how many points will the team be awarded if they reach a touchdown plus they will get an extra point for fortunate conversion.
Like in every other betting system, one of the most important factors for betting on sports is developing your own strategies. This can only be done once you have mastered all of the basics of the NFL betting. Because, for example, when punters want to bet on the NFL handicaps they have to consider a number of different factors, which do not include only the chances of the team A beating team B, but by how many points will the team A be better than the team B (or the other way around). Some of the professional gamblers spend a lot of time building power ranking systems so that they can evaluate teams’ strengths and even calculate the result of who has a better advantage or better odds, in any of the given games. This will be measured against the handicaps and the odds that are offered by the bookmakers – who are looking for differences that will represent the values. However, for the bettors who are new to the NFL betting system, there are some easier handicapped systems that will produce an accurate result in a short period of time. The most important factors of the NFL handicapped systems are:
Watch the Games: if you truly want to stand a chance of winning something, then you have watch to pay attention to the games you are watching. By watching every single game you will be able to learn how certain teams match-up against each other.
Check Box Scores: you should always pay attention to the NFL box scores, and you would be surprised with what you can learn there. There will be a lot of interesting factors that you probably did not even know that they exist. Even if you watched the entire game in your living room, you should always read the box scores. Make sure you never miss a week.
Public Perception: usually the casual players cannot wait to just jump on to the winner or to the loser of the results followed by the previous week. Keep in mind that the players are professional men, who will give it their all, regardless of what might have happened the last game. In most of the cases, you should just ignore what happened the last week of a certain game, unless we are talking about the player’s injuries.
Control your Emotions: if you are a hardcore fan of the sports already, and not just about the betting part, betting on your favorite team while still rooting for them might not be a good idea. This will just add additional stress to your life. Since you would never bet against your favorite team, no matter the odds, you should probably not even place a bet that game.
The most important thing is to not place Parlay bets. Yes, you might get lucky from time to time, and actually hit all 5 outcomes of the game, but there is no reason for you to use this bet in a long run. You need to be realistic and selective, and most importantly never chase your losses. Do not let your emotions get in the way of your logic. After reading this article it will be much easier for you to wager on your favorite team while still being able to profit.